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15 pages covering scenarios, market implications, and strategic recommendations, structured around five key topics:

• Impact of the Middle East conflict – How disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could affect raw material availability, prices, logistics, and the competitiveness of the European plastics industry.
• Scenario 1: The war ends quickly – Why markets and prices could stabilise, while damaged infrastructure and constrained production capacity would still prevent a rapid return to normal.
• Scenario 2: The war continues for an extended period – How global supply flows could shift, Europe’s competitiveness could come under further pressure, and multi-regional sourcing could become increasingly important.
• Scenario 3: No clear end to the war – The potential consequences of prolonged disruption for energy supplies, trade routes, and raw material sourcing, and why substitution would become strategically critical.
• Strategic implications for companies – From diversified sourcing structures and systematic stress testing to greater integration of recycling and recycled materials into industrial strategy.